Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Caernarfon Town win with a probability of 52.5%. A win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 24.66% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.88%) and 2-0 (8.16%). The likeliest Aberystwyth Town win was 1-2 (6.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.58%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
