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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 46.91%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 28.02% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.33%) and 0-2 (8.09%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Morecambe in this match.
Result | ||
Morecambe | Draw | Port Vale |
28.02% ( -1.9) | 25.07% ( -0.22) | 46.91% ( 2.13) |
Both teams to score 54.16% ( -0.48) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.14% ( -0.07) | 48.86% ( 0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.04% ( -0.06) | 70.96% ( 0.06) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.44% ( -1.42) | 31.56% ( 1.42) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.04% ( -1.66) | 67.96% ( 1.67) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.14% ( 0.92) | 20.86% ( -0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.44% ( 1.42) | 53.56% ( -1.42) |
Score Analysis |
Morecambe | Draw | Port Vale |
1-0 @ 7.59% ( -0.28) 2-1 @ 6.86% ( -0.33) 2-0 @ 4.38% ( -0.34) 3-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.24) 3-2 @ 2.07% ( -0.13) 3-0 @ 1.68% ( -0.2) Other @ 2.8% Total : 28.02% | 1-1 @ 11.9% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 6.59% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( -0.11) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( -0.03) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.07% | 0-1 @ 10.32% ( 0.32) 1-2 @ 9.33% ( 0.18) 0-2 @ 8.09% ( 0.46) 1-3 @ 4.87% ( 0.23) 0-3 @ 4.23% ( 0.35) 2-3 @ 2.81% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.91% ( 0.14) 0-4 @ 1.66% ( 0.18) 2-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.6% Total : 46.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 39 | 23 | 11 | 5 | 67 | 31 | 36 | 80 |
2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 67 | 41 | 26 | 80 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 38 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 74 | 31 | 43 | 78 |
4 | Barnsley | 38 | 23 | 6 | 9 | 66 | 34 | 32 | 75 |
5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 64 |
6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 39 | 20 | 4 | 15 | 65 | 47 | 18 | 64 |
7 | Derby CountyDerby | 39 | 18 | 10 | 11 | 59 | 41 | 18 | 64 |
8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 39 | 18 | 8 | 13 | 53 | 38 | 15 | 62 |
9 | Portsmouth | 39 | 16 | 13 | 10 | 54 | 44 | 10 | 61 |
10 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 47 | 47 | 0 | 55 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 39 | 14 | 11 | 14 | 58 | 51 | 7 | 53 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 39 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 59 | 50 | 9 | 52 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 39 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 50 |
14 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 38 | 9 | 19 | 10 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 46 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 45 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 39 | 12 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 49 | -15 | 45 |
17 | Port Vale | 39 | 12 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 57 | -17 | 45 |
18 | Burton Albion | 37 | 11 | 9 | 17 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 42 |
19 | MK Dons | 39 | 11 | 7 | 21 | 36 | 56 | -20 | 40 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 38 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 38 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 35 |
22 | Morecambe | 40 | 7 | 13 | 20 | 37 | 68 | -31 | 34 |
23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 38 | 9 | 6 | 23 | 30 | 59 | -29 | 33 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 39 | 6 | 8 | 25 | 29 | 72 | -43 | 26 |
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