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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ipswich Town win with a probability of 41.02%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 33.48% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ipswich Town win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (6.81%). The likeliest Derby County win was 1-0 (8.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ipswich Town would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Ipswich Town |
33.48% ( -0) | 25.5% ( -0.01) | 41.02% ( 0.01) |
Both teams to score 55.44% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.59% ( 0.05) | 48.41% ( -0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.45% ( 0.04) | 70.55% ( -0.05) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.39% ( 0.02) | 27.61% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.86% ( 0.03) | 63.14% ( -0.03) |
Ipswich Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
76.59% ( 0.03) | 23.41% ( -0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
42.6% ( 0.04) | 57.4% ( -0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Ipswich Town |
1-0 @ 8.32% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 7.77% 2-0 @ 5.35% ( -0) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.3% 4-1 @ 1.07% ( 0) Other @ 2.91% Total : 33.48% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.64% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.5% | 0-1 @ 9.38% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.81% ( -0) 1-3 @ 4.24% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.3% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.54% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.2% ( 0) 2-4 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 2.05% Total : 41.02% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
P | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 45 | 30 | 8 | 7 | 79 | 46 | 33 | 98 |
P | Ipswich TownIpswich | 45 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 99 | 33 | 66 | 97 |
3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 45 | 27 | 12 | 6 | 80 | 37 | 43 | 93 |
4 | Barnsley | 45 | 26 | 8 | 11 | 80 | 45 | 35 | 86 |
5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 45 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 59 | 34 | 25 | 78 |
6 | Derby CountyDerby | 45 | 21 | 13 | 11 | 67 | 45 | 22 | 76 |
7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 45 | 23 | 5 | 17 | 73 | 54 | 19 | 74 |
8 | Portsmouth | 45 | 17 | 18 | 10 | 59 | 48 | 11 | 69 |
9 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 45 | 20 | 8 | 17 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 68 |
10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 45 | 16 | 13 | 16 | 68 | 64 | 4 | 61 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 45 | 13 | 20 | 12 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 59 |
12 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 45 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 51 | 49 | 2 | 57 |
13 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 44 | 16 | 8 | 20 | 50 | 59 | -9 | 56 |
14 | Exeter CityExeter | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 61 | 66 | -5 | 53 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 44 | 14 | 11 | 19 | 55 | 68 | -13 | 53 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 45 | 14 | 11 | 20 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 53 |
17 | Burton Albion | 44 | 14 | 10 | 20 | 56 | 79 | -23 | 52 |
18 | Port Vale | 45 | 13 | 10 | 22 | 47 | 68 | -21 | 49 |
19 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 45 | 11 | 14 | 20 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 47 |
20 | MK Dons | 45 | 11 | 11 | 23 | 44 | 66 | -22 | 44 |
21 | Morecambe | 45 | 10 | 14 | 21 | 45 | 75 | -30 | 44 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 44 | 12 | 7 | 25 | 39 | 67 | -28 | 43 |
23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 45 | 10 | 11 | 24 | 38 | 76 | -38 | 41 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 45 | 6 | 9 | 30 | 31 | 87 | -56 | 27 |
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