Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 56.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 21.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 1-2 (5.66%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Villarreal would win this match.
Result | ||
Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo |
56.19% ( -0.07) | 22.37% ( 0.07) | 21.43% ( -0) |
Both teams to score 55.95% ( -0.24) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.83% ( -0.32) | 43.16% ( 0.32) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.43% ( -0.31) | 65.56% ( 0.31) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.8% ( -0.13) | 15.19% ( 0.13) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.18% ( -0.25) | 43.82% ( 0.25) |
Celta Vigo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.97% ( -0.18) | 34.02% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.29% ( -0.2) | 70.7% ( 0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Villarreal | Draw | Celta Vigo |
2-1 @ 9.89% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.74% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 9.18% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.76% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.35% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 2.93% ( -0.03) 4-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 1.1% ( -0.02) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.71% Total : 56.19% | 1-1 @ 10.5% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 5.17% ( 0.07) 3-3 @ 1.2% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 22.37% | 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0) 0-1 @ 5.57% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 3% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 2.16% Total : 21.43% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |