Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 59.19%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Villarreal had a probability of 19.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.44%) and 2-0 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.96%), while for a Villarreal win it was 1-2 (5.25%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
Result | ||
Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
59.19% ( -0.12) | 21.34% ( 0.05) | 19.46% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 56.32% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.81% ( -0.12) | 41.18% ( 0.12) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.42% ( -0.12) | 63.58% ( 0.12) |
Real Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.41% ( -0.07) | 13.58% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.3% ( -0.15) | 40.7% ( 0.15) |
Villarreal Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.17% ( -0) | 34.83% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.43% ( -0) | 71.56% ( 0) |
Score Analysis |
Real Madrid | Draw | Villarreal |
2-1 @ 9.94% 1-0 @ 9.44% ( 0.03) 2-0 @ 9.43% 3-1 @ 6.62% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.49% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.3% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 3.13% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.26% Total : 59.19% | 1-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.24% 0-0 @ 4.73% ( 0.03) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0) Other @ 0.18% Total : 21.34% | 1-2 @ 5.25% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.99% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.63% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.85% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.84% 0-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.98% Total : 19.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |