Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 78.12%. A draw had a probability of 13.7% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 8.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10%) and 2-1 (8.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.33%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 1-2 (2.52%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Real Madrid | Draw | Real Valladolid |
78.12% ( 0.09) | 13.66% ( -0.01) | 8.22% ( -0.08) |
Both teams to score 51.33% ( -0.42) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
68.65% ( -0.3) | 31.35% ( 0.31) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
47.2% ( -0.36) | 52.8% ( 0.36) |
Real Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
93.57% ( -0.05) | 6.43% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
75.93% ( -0.13) | 24.07% ( 0.13) |
Real Valladolid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
54.86% ( -0.43) | 45.14% ( 0.43) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
18.96% ( -0.34) | 81.04% ( 0.34) |
Score Analysis |
Real Madrid | Draw | Real Valladolid |
2-0 @ 10.92% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 10% ( 0.09) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( -0) 1-0 @ 7.96% ( 0.11) 3-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 6.86% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 5.46% ( -0.03) 5-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 3.16% ( -0.05) 5-1 @ 3% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.04) 6-0 @ 1.72% ( 0) 6-1 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 5-2 @ 1.19% ( -0.02) Other @ 3.9% Total : 78.11% | 1-1 @ 6.33% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 3.46% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.05) Other @ 0.96% Total : 13.66% | 1-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.02) 0-1 @ 2.31% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 0.92% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.56% Total : 8.22% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |