Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 56.69%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Real Valladolid had a probability of 21.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.77%) and 0-2 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Real Valladolid win it was 2-1 (5.58%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Real Valladolid | Draw | Real Madrid |
21.06% ( -0.15) | 22.25% ( -0.13) | 56.69% ( 0.28) |
Both teams to score 55.82% ( 0.2) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.92% ( 0.37) | 43.08% ( -0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.52% ( 0.37) | 65.48% ( -0.37) |
Real Valladolid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.67% ( 0.06) | 34.33% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.96% ( 0.07) | 71.03% ( -0.07) |
Real Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85% ( 0.22) | 15% ( -0.22) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
56.54% ( 0.41) | 43.46% ( -0.42) |
Score Analysis |
Real Valladolid | Draw | Real Madrid |
2-1 @ 5.58% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 5.51% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 2.94% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 1.89% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.1% Total : 21.06% | 1-1 @ 10.44% ( -0.07) 2-2 @ 5.3% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.09) 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.24% | 1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 9.77% ( -0.09) 0-2 @ 9.27% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 6.27% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 5.86% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 3.35% ( 0.03) 1-4 @ 2.97% ( 0.05) 0-4 @ 2.78% ( 0.04) 2-4 @ 1.59% ( 0.03) 1-5 @ 1.13% ( 0.03) 0-5 @ 1.06% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.75% Total : 56.69% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 37 | 28 | 4 | 5 | 69 | 18 | 51 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 37 | 24 | 5 | 8 | 74 | 35 | 39 | 77 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 37 | 23 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 31 | 37 | 76 |
4 | Real Sociedad | 37 | 20 | 8 | 9 | 49 | 34 | 15 | 68 |
5 | Villarreal | 37 | 19 | 6 | 12 | 57 | 38 | 19 | 63 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 37 | 17 | 8 | 12 | 45 | 40 | 5 | 59 |
7 | Osasuna | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 35 | 41 | -6 | 50 |
8 | Athletic Bilbao | 37 | 14 | 8 | 15 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 50 |
9 | GironaGirona | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 57 | 53 | 4 | 49 |
10 | Rayo Vallecano | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 49 |
11 | Sevilla | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 52 | -6 | 49 |
12 | Mallorca | 37 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 34 | 43 | -9 | 47 |
13 | Valencia | 37 | 11 | 8 | 18 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 41 |
14 | CadizCadiz | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 29 | 52 | -23 | 41 |
15 | Getafe | 37 | 10 | 11 | 16 | 34 | 45 | -11 | 41 |
16 | Almeria | 37 | 11 | 7 | 19 | 46 | 62 | -16 | 40 |
17 | Celta Vigo | 37 | 10 | 10 | 17 | 41 | 52 | -11 | 40 |
18 | Real ValladolidValladolid | 37 | 11 | 6 | 20 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 39 |
R | Espanyol | 37 | 8 | 12 | 17 | 49 | 66 | -17 | 36 |
R | ElcheElche | 37 | 5 | 9 | 23 | 29 | 66 | -37 | 24 |
> La Liga Full Table |