Home > Football > League One
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 75.69%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Morecambe had a probability of 8.45%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.47%) and 3-0 (10.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.53%), while for a Morecambe win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Morecambe |
75.69% ( 0.74) | 15.85% ( -0.57) | 8.45% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 43.61% ( 1.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.32% ( 1.99) | 41.68% ( -1.99) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.92% ( 1.98) | 64.08% ( -1.98) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.68% ( 0.69) | 9.32% ( -0.69) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.56% ( 1.61) | 31.43% ( -1.6) |
Morecambe Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.09% ( 0.9) | 51.91% ( -0.9) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.05% ( 0.58) | 85.94% ( -0.58) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Morecambe |
2-0 @ 13.62% ( -0.38) 1-0 @ 11.47% ( -0.69) 3-0 @ 10.77% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 8.93% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.21) 4-0 @ 6.39% ( 0.21) 4-1 @ 4.19% ( 0.24) 5-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.19) 3-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.13) 5-1 @ 1.99% ( 0.17) 4-2 @ 1.37% ( 0.11) 6-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.11) Other @ 3.32% Total : 75.68% | 1-1 @ 7.53% ( -0.24) 0-0 @ 4.84% ( -0.45) 2-2 @ 2.93% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.56% Total : 15.85% | 0-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 2.47% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.04% ( -0.04) Other @ 1.77% Total : 8.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 33 | 22 | 8 | 3 | 60 | 22 | 38 | 74 |
2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 61 | 37 | 24 | 71 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 34 | 18 | 12 | 4 | 65 | 31 | 34 | 66 |
4 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 36 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 51 | 28 | 23 | 63 |
5 | Derby CountyDerby | 34 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 55 | 31 | 24 | 61 |
6 | Barnsley | 32 | 18 | 6 | 8 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 60 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 33 | 16 | 6 | 11 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 54 |
8 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 34 | 15 | 7 | 12 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 52 |
9 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 33 | 16 | 3 | 14 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 51 |
10 | Portsmouth | 33 | 13 | 12 | 8 | 45 | 37 | 8 | 51 |
11 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 33 | 9 | 17 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 44 |
12 | Exeter CityExeter | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 45 | 44 | 1 | 43 |
13 | Port Vale | 35 | 12 | 7 | 16 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 43 |
14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 36 | 35 | 1 | 42 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 47 | 55 | -8 | 42 |
16 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 34 | 10 | 11 | 13 | 45 | 46 | -1 | 41 |
17 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 35 | 9 | 9 | 17 | 36 | 45 | -9 | 36 |
18 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 26 | 46 | -20 | 36 |
19 | Burton Albion | 33 | 9 | 8 | 16 | 40 | 62 | -22 | 35 |
20 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 32 | 8 | 10 | 14 | 28 | 48 | -20 | 34 |
21 | Morecambe | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 33 | 53 | -20 | 32 |
22 | MK Dons | 35 | 8 | 6 | 21 | 31 | 54 | -23 | 30 |
23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 34 | 8 | 5 | 21 | 26 | 55 | -29 | 29 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 35 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 27 | 66 | -39 | 23 |
> Full Version |