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League One | Gameweek 24
Dec 30, 2022 at 7.45pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Cambridge United
Derby
1 - 0
Cambridge
Dobbin (57')
Sibley (35'), Smith (90+3')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Brophy (76'), Janneh (81'), Williams (89')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Friday's League One clash between Derby County and Cambridge United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bolton 0-0 Derby
Tuesday, December 27 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 1-1 Cambridge United

Derby County's trouble recently has been turning draws into victories, and although they boast the quality to see off Cambridge United, the visitors will have renewed optimism after their Boxing Day victory, and we fancy them to return home with a share of the spoils. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 65.51%. A draw had a probability of 19.5% and a win for Cambridge United had a probability of 14.96%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.04%) and 2-1 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.21%), while for a Cambridge United win it was 0-1 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby CountyDrawCambridge United
65.51% (-0.58099999999999 -0.58) 19.53% (0.062000000000001 0.06) 14.96% (0.523 0.52)
Both teams to score 52.98% (1.155 1.16)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.04% (0.848 0.85)40.96% (-0.845 -0.84)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.64% (0.86 0.86)63.35% (-0.858 -0.86)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.29% (0.090000000000003 0.09)11.71% (-0.087 -0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.17% (0.195 0.2)36.83% (-0.191 -0.19)
Cambridge United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
60% (1.25 1.25)40% (-1.245 -1.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
23.35% (1.126 1.13)76.65% (-1.123 -1.12)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 65.5%
    Cambridge United 14.96%
    Draw 19.53%
Derby CountyDrawCambridge United
2-0 @ 10.77% (-0.34 -0.34)
1-0 @ 10.04% (-0.36 -0.36)
2-1 @ 9.87% (0.028 0.03)
3-0 @ 7.7% (-0.216 -0.22)
3-1 @ 7.06% (0.045000000000001 0.05)
4-0 @ 4.13% (-0.1 -0.1)
4-1 @ 3.78% (0.038 0.04)
3-2 @ 3.23% (0.129 0.13)
5-0 @ 1.77% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.73% (0.075 0.08)
5-1 @ 1.62% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 3.79%
Total : 65.5%
1-1 @ 9.21% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
0-0 @ 4.68% (-0.182 -0.18)
2-2 @ 4.52% (0.164 0.16)
3-3 @ 0.99% (0.071 0.07)
Other @ 0.13%
Total : 19.53%
0-1 @ 4.29% (-0.018 -0.02)
1-2 @ 4.22% (0.138 0.14)
0-2 @ 1.97% (0.058 0.06)
2-3 @ 1.38% (0.095 0.1)
1-3 @ 1.29% (0.084 0.08)
Other @ 1.81%
Total : 14.96%

How you voted: Derby vs Cambridge

Derby County
86.4%
Draw
9.1%
Cambridge United
4.5%
44
Head to Head
Oct 1, 2022 3pm
rhs 2.0
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Portsmouth9540156919
2Oxford UnitedOxford Utd8602157818
3Stevenage9531146818
4Port Vale95221114-317
5Barnsley95132011916
6Exeter CityExeter9513107316
7Bolton WanderersBolton84221410414
8Peterborough UnitedPeterborough94231311214
9Derby CountyDerby8413149513
10Cambridge UnitedCambridge8413107313
11Wycombe WanderersWycombe8413912-313
12Lincoln CityLincoln8332129312
13Bristol Rovers8332129312
14Blackpool833287112
15Leyton Orient9324813-511
16Charlton AthleticCharlton83141111010
17Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury830549-59
18Northampton TownNorthampton821569-37
19Carlisle UnitedCarlisle9144711-47
20Burton Albion9135614-86
21Wigan AthleticWigan8413131215
22Reading8305710-35
23Fleetwood TownFleetwood8026414-102
24Cheltenham TownCheltenham9018015-151

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