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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 18.49%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.53%) and 1-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.67%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-2 (5.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Derby County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
60.72% ( 0.02) | 20.78% ( -0.17) | 18.49% ( 0.14) |
Both teams to score 56.47% ( 0.86) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.86% ( 1.01) | 40.14% ( -1.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.49% ( 1.03) | 62.5% ( -1.04) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
87.2% ( 0.32) | 12.8% ( -0.32) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
60.89% ( 0.66) | 39.1% ( -0.67) |
Forest Green Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.76% ( 0.75) | 35.24% ( -0.76) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28% ( 0.78) | 71.99% ( -0.78) |
Score Analysis |
Derby County | Draw | Forest Green Rovers |
2-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.53% ( -0.21) 1-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.32) 3-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.07) 3-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.11) 4-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.08) 4-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.08) 5-1 @ 1.44% ( 0.05) 5-0 @ 1.38% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.58% Total : 60.72% | 1-1 @ 9.67% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 4.51% ( -0.21) 3-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.06) Other @ 0.18% Total : 20.78% | 1-2 @ 5.04% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.7% ( -0.12) 0-2 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.07) 1-3 @ 1.75% ( 0.05) Other @ 2.74% Total : 18.49% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 39 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 70 | 42 | 28 | 83 |
2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 39 | 23 | 12 | 4 | 78 | 31 | 47 | 81 |
3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 40 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 68 | 32 | 36 | 81 |
4 | Barnsley | 39 | 23 | 6 | 10 | 67 | 36 | 31 | 75 |
5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 39 | 19 | 10 | 10 | 53 | 31 | 22 | 67 |
6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 40 | 21 | 4 | 15 | 68 | 47 | 21 | 67 |
7 | Derby CountyDerby | 40 | 19 | 10 | 11 | 61 | 41 | 20 | 67 |
8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 40 | 18 | 8 | 14 | 53 | 42 | 11 | 62 |
9 | Portsmouth | 40 | 16 | 14 | 10 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 62 |
10 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 39 | 16 | 7 | 16 | 47 | 50 | -3 | 55 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 40 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 53 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 40 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 59 | 51 | 8 | 52 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 40 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 44 | 43 | 1 | 50 |
14 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 39 | 10 | 19 | 10 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 49 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 51 | 60 | -9 | 48 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 40 | 12 | 9 | 19 | 34 | 51 | -17 | 45 |
17 | Port Vale | 40 | 12 | 9 | 19 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 45 |
18 | Burton Albion | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 49 | 71 | -22 | 45 |
19 | MK Dons | 40 | 11 | 8 | 21 | 37 | 57 | -20 | 41 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 39 | 9 | 12 | 18 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 39 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 39 | 9 | 11 | 19 | 33 | 63 | -30 | 38 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 39 | 10 | 6 | 23 | 32 | 60 | -28 | 36 |
23 | Morecambe | 41 | 7 | 13 | 21 | 38 | 71 | -33 | 34 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 40 | 6 | 8 | 26 | 29 | 74 | -45 | 26 |
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