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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 63.99%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Hertha Berlin had a probability of 16.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 1-0 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.28%), while for a Hertha Berlin win it was 1-2 (4.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Hertha Berlin |
63.99% ( -0.04) | 19.84% ( 0) | 16.17% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 54.82% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.04% ( 0.03) | 39.96% ( -0.03) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.68% ( 0.03) | 62.32% ( -0.03) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
88.17% ( -0) | 11.82% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
62.92% ( -0) | 37.07% |
Hertha Berlin Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.18% ( 0.06) | 37.82% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.41% ( 0.05) | 74.59% ( -0.06) |
Score Analysis |
Bayer Leverkusen | Draw | Hertha Berlin |
2-0 @ 10.19% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.91% 1-0 @ 9.55% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 7.25% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.05% ( 0) 4-0 @ 3.87% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 3.76% 3-2 @ 3.43% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.83% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.65% ( -0) 5-1 @ 1.61% Other @ 3.88% Total : 63.99% | 1-1 @ 9.28% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.82% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 4.47% ( -0.01) 3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 19.84% | 1-2 @ 4.51% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.35% 0-2 @ 2.11% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 16.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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