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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 66.32%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 16.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.24%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.96%), while for a Borussia Dortmund win it was 1-2 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 3.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
66.32% | 17.22% | 16.46% |
Both teams to score 65.88% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
73.68% | 26.32% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
53.37% | 46.62% |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
92.5% | 7.5% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
73.07% | 26.93% |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.22% | 28.78% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.37% | 64.63% |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 9.02% 3-1 @ 7.79% 2-0 @ 7.24% 3-0 @ 6.25% 1-0 @ 5.59% 4-1 @ 5.04% 3-2 @ 4.85% 4-0 @ 4.05% 4-2 @ 3.14% 5-1 @ 2.61% 5-0 @ 2.1% 5-2 @ 1.63% 4-3 @ 1.3% 6-1 @ 1.13% 6-0 @ 0.91% Other @ 3.68% Total : 66.32% | 1-1 @ 6.96% 2-2 @ 5.62% 0-0 @ 2.16% 3-3 @ 2.01% Other @ 0.46% Total : 17.22% | 1-2 @ 4.34% 0-1 @ 2.69% 2-3 @ 2.33% 1-3 @ 1.8% 0-2 @ 1.67% Other @ 3.63% Total : 16.46% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
> Bundesliga Full Table |