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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 66.52%. A draw had a probability of 17.6% and a win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 15.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.19%) and 1-3 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.57%), while for a Werder Bremen win it was 2-1 (4.34%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
Result | ||
Werder Bremen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
15.83% ( 0.38) | 17.64% ( 0.28) | 66.52% ( -0.66) |
Both teams to score 62.48% ( -0.18) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
70.16% ( -0.63) | 29.84% ( 0.63) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
49% ( -0.76) | 51% ( 0.77) |
Werder Bremen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.19% ( 0.03) | 31.8% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.76% ( 0.03) | 68.24% ( -0.03) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
91.62% ( -0.3) | 8.38% ( 0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
70.84% ( -0.76) | 29.16% ( 0.76) |
Score Analysis |
Werder Bremen | Draw | Borussia Dortmund |
2-1 @ 4.34% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 3.05% ( 0.11) 3-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 1.75% ( 0.07) 3-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.99% Total : 15.83% | 1-1 @ 7.57% ( 0.17) 2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.1) 3-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.34% Total : 17.64% | 1-2 @ 9.38% ( 0.07) 0-2 @ 8.19% ( 0.05) 1-3 @ 7.76% ( -0.06) 0-3 @ 6.77% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 6.61% ( 0.14) 1-4 @ 4.81% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 4.44% ( -0.03) 0-4 @ 4.2% ( -0.1) 2-4 @ 2.75% ( -0.06) 1-5 @ 2.38% ( -0.09) 0-5 @ 2.08% ( -0.08) 2-5 @ 1.37% ( -0.05) 3-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.02) 1-6 @ 0.99% ( -0.05) Other @ 3.75% Total : 66.52% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 92 | 38 | 54 | 71 |
2 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 22 | 5 | 7 | 83 | 44 | 39 | 71 |
3 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 20 | 6 | 8 | 64 | 41 | 23 | 66 |
4 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 51 | 38 | 13 | 62 |
5 | Freiburg | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 51 | 44 | 7 | 59 |
6 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 57 | 49 | 8 | 50 |
7 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 58 | 52 | 6 | 50 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 48 | 9 | 49 |
9 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 54 | 55 | -1 | 46 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 52 | 55 | -3 | 43 |
11 | FC Koln | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 49 | 54 | -5 | 42 |
12 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 36 |
13 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 36 |
14 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 10 | 5 | 19 | 40 | 72 | -32 | 35 |
15 | Augsburg | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 34 |
16 | Stuttgart | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 33 |
R | Schalke 04Schalke | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 31 |
R | Hertha Berlin | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 42 | 69 | -27 | 29 |
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