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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 38.98%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 32.86% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.05%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 1-0 (10.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood.
Result | ||
Colchester United | Draw | Newport County |
32.86% ( 0.04) | 28.17% ( 0.11) | 38.98% ( -0.14) |
Both teams to score 46.96% ( -0.29) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.87% ( -0.36) | 59.14% ( 0.37) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.43% ( -0.28) | 79.58% ( 0.29) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
66.61% ( -0.16) | 33.4% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29.98% ( -0.18) | 70.03% ( 0.19) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.51% ( -0.26) | 29.49% ( 0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.5% ( -0.32) | 65.51% ( 0.33) |
Score Analysis |
Colchester United | Draw | Newport County |
1-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 7.23% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 5.92% ( 0.03) 3-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.17% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.61% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.48% Total : 32.85% | 1-1 @ 13.19% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 9.85% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 4.42% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.72% Total : 28.17% | 0-1 @ 12.02% ( 0.08) 1-2 @ 8.05% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 7.34% ( -0) 1-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.04) 0-3 @ 2.99% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.8% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0.02) 0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.02) Other @ 1.58% Total : 38.97% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Leyton Orient | 45 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 90 |
P | Stevenage | 45 | 23 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 39 | 21 | 82 |
3 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 45 | 22 | 14 | 9 | 61 | 42 | 19 | 80 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 45 | 22 | 12 | 11 | 64 | 36 | 28 | 78 |
5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 45 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 65 | 42 | 23 | 75 |
6 | Salford City | 45 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 72 | 53 | 19 | 75 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 44 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 58 | 39 | 19 | 75 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 45 | 20 | 12 | 13 | 70 | 55 | 15 | 72 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 45 | 18 | 8 | 19 | 47 | 52 | -5 | 62 |
10 | Swindon TownSwindon | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 59 | 54 | 5 | 58 |
11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 45 | 47 | -2 | 58 |
12 | Grimsby Town | 45 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 48 | 56 | -8 | 58 |
13 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 45 | 15 | 12 | 18 | 45 | 57 | -12 | 57 |
14 | Newport CountyNewport | 45 | 14 | 14 | 17 | 51 | 54 | -3 | 56 |
15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 45 | 16 | 7 | 22 | 45 | 63 | -18 | 55 |
16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 44 | 13 | 15 | 16 | 43 | 56 | -13 | 54 |
17 | Walsall | 45 | 11 | 19 | 15 | 44 | 48 | -4 | 52 |
18 | Gillingham | 45 | 13 | 13 | 19 | 35 | 49 | -14 | 52 |
19 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 45 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 58 | 67 | -9 | 51 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 45 | 12 | 13 | 20 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 49 |
21 | AFC Wimbledon | 45 | 11 | 15 | 19 | 48 | 59 | -11 | 48 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 45 | 11 | 13 | 21 | 47 | 69 | -22 | 46 |
R | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 45 | 9 | 15 | 21 | 51 | 77 | -26 | 42 |
R | Rochdale | 45 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 37 |
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