Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 74.76%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Aberystwyth Town had a probability of 9.32%.

The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.34%) and 3-0 (10.12%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for an Aberystwyth Town win it was 0-1 (3.12%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.