Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 75.4%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Pacos de Ferreira had a probability of 8.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.2%) and 3-0 (10.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.56%), while for a Pacos de Ferreira win it was 0-1 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
75.4% ( 0.15) | 15.9% ( -0.08) | 8.7% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 44.54% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.95% ( 0.21) | 41.05% ( -0.2) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.56% ( 0.21) | 63.44% ( -0.2) |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.77% ( 0.09) | 9.23% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
68.77% ( 0.21) | 31.23% ( -0.2) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
49.07% ( 0.01) | 50.93% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.71% ( 0.01) | 85.29% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Pacos de Ferreira |
2-0 @ 13.34% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 11.2% ( -0.06) 3-0 @ 10.59% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.02) 4-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 4.26% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.03) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 2.03% ( 0.02) 4-2 @ 1.44% ( 0.01) 6-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.46% Total : 75.39% | 1-1 @ 7.56% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.04% ( -0) Other @ 0.6% Total : 15.9% | 0-1 @ 3.17% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 2.55% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 1.07% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.9% Total : 8.7% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 28 | 23 | 2 | 3 | 68 | 17 | 51 | 71 |
2 | Braga | 29 | 22 | 2 | 5 | 62 | 24 | 38 | 68 |
3 | Porto | 28 | 21 | 4 | 3 | 60 | 19 | 41 | 67 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | 57 | 27 | 30 | 58 |
5 | AroucaArouca | 28 | 12 | 9 | 7 | 32 | 33 | -1 | 45 |
6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 29 | 13 | 3 | 13 | 33 | 37 | -4 | 42 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 28 | 12 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 41 |
8 | Vizela | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 32 | 29 | 3 | 39 |
9 | Casa Pia | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 27 | 33 | -6 | 39 |
10 | BoavistaBoavista | 29 | 10 | 7 | 12 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 37 |
11 | ChavesChaves | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 28 | 33 | -5 | 36 |
12 | Rio AveRio Ave | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 35 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 31 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 28 | 9 | 3 | 16 | 21 | 35 | -14 | 30 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 23 | 44 | -21 | 25 |
16 | Maritimo | 29 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 26 | 54 | -28 | 22 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 28 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 49 | -28 | 17 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 28 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 18 | 44 | -26 | 15 |
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