Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 40.33%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (10.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.15%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.2% likelihood.
Result | ||
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
40.33% ( -0.56) | 28.1% ( -0.09) | 31.58% ( 0.65) |
Both teams to score 46.83% ( 0.46) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.86% ( 0.47) | 59.14% ( -0.47) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.43% ( 0.37) | 79.58% ( -0.36) |
Pacos de Ferreira Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.29% ( -0.09) | 28.72% ( 0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.46% ( -0.11) | 64.55% ( 0.11) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.7% ( 0.73) | 34.31% ( -0.73) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
29% ( 0.77) | 71.01% ( -0.77) |
Score Analysis |
Pacos de Ferreira | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 12.29% ( -0.25) 2-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.02) 2-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.18) 3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.19% ( -0.08) 3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.68% Total : 40.32% | 1-1 @ 13.15% 0-0 @ 9.85% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 4.39% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.71% Total : 28.1% | 0-1 @ 10.54% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.04% ( 0.13) 0-2 @ 5.64% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.1) 0-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.08) 2-3 @ 1.57% ( 0.06) Other @ 2.28% Total : 31.58% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 25 | 22 | 2 | 1 | 66 | 14 | 52 | 68 |
2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 25 | 12 | 4 | 9 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 40 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 25 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 29 | 32 | -3 | 38 |
7 | Casa Pia | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 35 |
8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 25 | 28 | -3 | 33 |
9 | Vizela | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 27 | 0 | 32 |
10 | ChavesChaves | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 32 |
11 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 24 | 9 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 30 |
12 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
13 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 25 | 8 | 2 | 15 | 18 | 32 | -14 | 26 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 25 | 6 | 4 | 15 | 21 | 39 | -18 | 22 |
16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 43 | -24 | 16 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 25 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 17 | 38 | -21 | 15 |
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