Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colon win with a probability of 35.87%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 35.08% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Colon win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.45%) and 2-0 (6.79%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (12.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.39%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colon would win this match.