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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 84.65%. A draw had a probability of 10% and a win for Mainz 05 had a probability of 5.31%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.87%) and 4-0 (8.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.56%), while for a Mainz 05 win it was 1-2 (1.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
Result | ||
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
84.65% | 10.04% | 5.31% |
Both teams to score 50.36% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
75.6% | 24.4% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
55.85% | 44.15% |
Bayern Munich Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.99% | 4% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
83.1% | 16.9% |
Mainz 05 Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.46% | 47.53% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.11% | 82.88% |
Score Analysis |
Bayern Munich | Draw | Mainz 05 |
3-0 @ 10.58% 2-0 @ 9.87% 4-0 @ 8.52% 3-1 @ 7.88% 2-1 @ 7.34% 4-1 @ 6.34% 1-0 @ 6.13% 5-0 @ 5.49% 5-1 @ 4.08% 6-0 @ 2.94% 3-2 @ 2.93% 4-2 @ 2.36% 6-1 @ 2.19% 5-2 @ 1.52% 7-0 @ 1.35% 7-1 @ 1.01% Other @ 4.13% Total : 84.64% | 1-1 @ 4.56% 2-2 @ 2.73% 0-0 @ 1.9% Other @ 0.85% Total : 10.04% | 1-2 @ 1.7% 0-1 @ 1.42% Other @ 2.2% Total : 5.31% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 29 | 19 | 3 | 7 | 66 | 39 | 27 | 60 |
2 | Bayern MunichBayern | 29 | 17 | 8 | 4 | 79 | 33 | 46 | 59 |
3 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 28 | 15 | 7 | 6 | 43 | 31 | 12 | 52 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 28 | 15 | 6 | 7 | 53 | 35 | 18 | 51 |
5 | Freiburg | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 37 | 4 | 50 |
6 | Mainz 05Mainz | 29 | 12 | 9 | 8 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 45 |
7 | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 51 | 41 | 10 | 44 |
8 | Wolfsburg | 29 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 51 | 37 | 14 | 43 |
9 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 29 | 11 | 9 | 9 | 49 | 45 | 4 | 42 |
10 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 36 |
11 | FC Koln | 29 | 8 | 11 | 10 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 35 |
12 | Werder Bremen | 29 | 10 | 5 | 14 | 47 | 56 | -9 | 35 |
13 | Augsburg | 29 | 8 | 6 | 15 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 30 |
14 | Hoffenheim | 29 | 8 | 5 | 16 | 39 | 50 | -11 | 29 |
15 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 29 | 8 | 3 | 18 | 32 | 66 | -34 | 27 |
16 | Stuttgart | 29 | 5 | 10 | 14 | 36 | 51 | -15 | 25 |
17 | Schalke 04Schalke | 28 | 5 | 9 | 14 | 26 | 52 | -26 | 24 |
18 | Hertha Berlin | 29 | 5 | 7 | 17 | 35 | 59 | -24 | 22 |
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