Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 73.48%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 9.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 0-2 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (12.16%) and 0-3 (10.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.1%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-0 (3.59%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Estoril Praia | Draw | Porto |
9.43% | 17.09% | 73.48% |
Both teams to score 43.52% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
55.85% | 44.15% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
33.47% | 66.53% |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.63% | 51.37% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.41% | 85.59% |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.5% | 10.5% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.83% | 34.17% |
Score Analysis |
Estoril Praia | Draw | Porto |
1-0 @ 3.59% 2-1 @ 2.7% 2-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 1.94% Total : 9.43% | 1-1 @ 8.1% 0-0 @ 5.4% 2-2 @ 3.04% Other @ 0.56% Total : 17.09% | 0-2 @ 13.7% 0-1 @ 12.16% 0-3 @ 10.29% 1-2 @ 9.13% 1-3 @ 6.86% 0-4 @ 5.8% 1-4 @ 3.86% 0-5 @ 2.61% 2-3 @ 2.28% 1-5 @ 1.74% 2-4 @ 1.29% 0-6 @ 0.98% Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.48% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 58 | 13 | 45 | 62 |
2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
3 | Braga | 23 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 50 | 22 | 28 | 52 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 23 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 46 | 23 | 23 | 47 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 23 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 24 | 22 | 2 | 40 |
6 | Casa Pia | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 35 |
7 | AroucaArouca | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 34 |
8 | BoavistaBoavista | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 30 |
9 | Vizela | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 29 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 23 | 8 | 5 | 10 | 25 | 29 | -4 | 29 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 27 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 27 |
13 | PortimonensePortimonense | 23 | 8 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 26 |
14 | ChavesChaves | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 26 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 22 |
16 | Maritimo | 23 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 16 |
17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 17 | 35 | -18 | 15 |
18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 23 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 42 | -25 | 12 |
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