Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 52.95%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 24.23% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.02%) and 2-0 (8.3%). The likeliest Benfica win was 1-2 (6.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.59%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
Result | ||
Porto | Draw | Benfica |
52.95% | 22.81% | 24.23% |
Both teams to score 58.15% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
58.04% | 41.95% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.64% | 64.36% |
Porto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.13% | 15.86% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.93% | 45.07% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.12% | 30.88% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.83% | 67.16% |
Score Analysis |
Porto | Draw | Benfica |
2-1 @ 9.76% 1-0 @ 9.02% 2-0 @ 8.3% 3-1 @ 5.99% 3-0 @ 5.1% 3-2 @ 3.52% 4-1 @ 2.76% 4-0 @ 2.35% 4-2 @ 1.62% 5-1 @ 1.02% Other @ 3.54% Total : 52.95% | 1-1 @ 10.59% 2-2 @ 5.73% 0-0 @ 4.9% 3-3 @ 1.38% Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.8% | 1-2 @ 6.23% 0-1 @ 5.76% 0-2 @ 3.38% 1-3 @ 2.44% 2-3 @ 2.25% 0-3 @ 1.33% Other @ 2.86% Total : 24.23% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 16 |
2 | Porto | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 16 |
3 | Benfica | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 15 |
4 | Braga | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | 5 | 13 |
5 | BoavistaBoavista | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 13 |
6 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 10 |
8 | Casa Pia | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 9 |
9 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 7 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 6 |
11 | SC FarenseFarense | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 6 |
12 | AroucaArouca | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
13 | Vizela | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 5 |
14 | Rio AveRio Ave | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 5 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
16 | PortimonensePortimonense | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 |
17 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 4 |
18 | ChavesChaves | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 19 | -13 | 1 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |