Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 74.53%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Maritimo had a probability of 8.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.88%) and 3-0 (10.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.83%), while for a Maritimo win it was 0-1 (3.4%). The actual scoreline of 7-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Maritimo |
74.53% | 16.52% | 8.95% |
Both teams to score 43.47% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.91% | 43.09% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.51% | 65.49% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
90.04% | 9.96% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
67.07% | 32.93% |
Maritimo Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.28% | 51.71% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.18% | 85.82% |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Maritimo |
2-0 @ 13.7% 1-0 @ 11.88% 3-0 @ 10.53% 2-1 @ 9.04% 3-1 @ 6.95% 4-0 @ 6.08% 4-1 @ 4.01% 5-0 @ 2.8% 3-2 @ 2.29% 5-1 @ 1.85% 4-2 @ 1.32% 6-0 @ 1.08% Other @ 3% Total : 74.52% | 1-1 @ 7.83% 0-0 @ 5.15% 2-2 @ 2.98% Other @ 0.56% Total : 16.52% | 0-1 @ 3.4% 1-2 @ 2.58% 0-2 @ 1.12% Other @ 1.85% Total : 8.95% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 61 | 13 | 48 | 65 |
2 | Porto | 24 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 55 | 17 | 38 | 57 |
3 | Braga | 24 | 18 | 1 | 5 | 54 | 22 | 32 | 55 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 24 | 16 | 2 | 6 | 49 | 23 | 26 | 50 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 40 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 37 |
7 | Casa Pia | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 23 | -3 | 35 |
8 | Rio AveRio Ave | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 23 | 28 | -5 | 30 |
9 | BoavistaBoavista | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 27 | 38 | -11 | 30 |
10 | Vizela | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 27 | -1 | 29 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 29 |
12 | ChavesChaves | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 29 |
13 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 27 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 24 | 8 | 2 | 14 | 18 | 31 | -13 | 26 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 21 | 37 | -16 | 22 |
16 | Maritimo | 24 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 17 | 45 | -28 | 16 |
17 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 24 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 42 | -24 | 15 |
18 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 24 | 3 | 6 | 15 | 17 | 36 | -19 | 15 |
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