Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 50.53%. A win for Famalicao had a probability of 25.47% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Famalicao win was 1-0 (6.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.33%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Famalicao | Draw | Benfica |
25.47% | 24% | 50.53% |
Both teams to score 55.48% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.88% | 46.12% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.58% | 68.42% |
Famalicao Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.89% | 32.11% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.42% | 68.58% |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.71% | 18.29% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.64% | 49.36% |
Score Analysis |
Famalicao | Draw | Benfica |
1-0 @ 6.67% 2-1 @ 6.44% 2-0 @ 3.79% 3-1 @ 2.44% 3-2 @ 2.07% 3-0 @ 1.44% Other @ 2.63% Total : 25.47% | 1-1 @ 11.33% 0-0 @ 5.87% 2-2 @ 5.47% 3-3 @ 1.17% Other @ 0.15% Total : 24% | 0-1 @ 9.98% 1-2 @ 9.63% 0-2 @ 8.47% 1-3 @ 5.45% 0-3 @ 4.8% 2-3 @ 3.1% 1-4 @ 2.32% 0-4 @ 2.04% 2-4 @ 1.32% Other @ 3.44% Total : 50.53% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 23 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 58 | 13 | 45 | 62 |
2 | Porto | 22 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 49 | 14 | 35 | 51 |
3 | Braga | 22 | 16 | 1 | 5 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 49 |
4 | Sporting Lisbon | 22 | 14 | 2 | 6 | 45 | 23 | 22 | 44 |
5 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 22 | 11 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 37 |
6 | AroucaArouca | 23 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 34 |
7 | Casa Pia | 22 | 9 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 32 |
8 | BoavistaBoavista | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 27 | 35 | -8 | 30 |
9 | Rio AveRio Ave | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 27 |
10 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 23 | 8 | 3 | 12 | 22 | 31 | -9 | 27 |
11 | Vizela | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 26 |
12 | Gil Vicente | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 23 | 29 | -6 | 26 |
13 | ChavesChaves | 22 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 26 |
14 | PortimonensePortimonense | 22 | 8 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 26 |
15 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 22 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 22 |
16 | Maritimo | 22 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | 40 | -23 | 16 |
17 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 22 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 32 | -16 | 15 |
18 | Pacos de FerreiraPacos de Ferreira | 22 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 16 | 40 | -24 | 12 |
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