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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 49.03%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 24.68%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.49%) and 2-1 (9.15%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.4%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (8.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Port Vale in this match.
Result | ||
Port Vale | Draw | MK Dons |
49.03% ( 0.06) | 26.29% ( -0.03) | 24.68% ( -0.03) |
Both teams to score 47.75% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.1% ( 0.07) | 55.9% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.99% ( 0.06) | 77.01% ( -0.06) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.15% ( 0.06) | 22.85% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.42% ( 0.08) | 56.58% ( -0.09) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.9% ( 0.01) | 38.1% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.13% ( 0.01) | 74.87% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
Port Vale | Draw | MK Dons |
1-0 @ 12.85% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.49% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.15% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.51% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.8% Total : 49.03% | 1-1 @ 12.4% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.71% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.77% Total : 26.29% | 0-1 @ 8.4% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 5.98% ( -0) 0-2 @ 4.05% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.92% 2-3 @ 1.42% ( 0) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( -0) Other @ 1.6% Total : 24.68% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 41 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 71 | 32 | 39 | 84 |
2 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 40 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 70 | 44 | 26 | 83 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 40 | 23 | 13 | 4 | 79 | 32 | 47 | 82 |
4 | Barnsley | 40 | 24 | 6 | 10 | 69 | 37 | 32 | 78 |
5 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 41 | 22 | 4 | 15 | 71 | 48 | 23 | 70 |
6 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 40 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 54 | 32 | 22 | 68 |
7 | Derby CountyDerby | 41 | 19 | 11 | 11 | 62 | 42 | 20 | 68 |
8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 41 | 19 | 8 | 14 | 55 | 42 | 13 | 65 |
9 | Portsmouth | 41 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 55 | 45 | 10 | 63 |
10 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 41 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 62 | 53 | 9 | 55 |
11 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 40 | 16 | 7 | 17 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 55 |
12 | Exeter CityExeter | 41 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 59 | 55 | 4 | 53 |
13 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 40 | 11 | 19 | 10 | 39 | 41 | -2 | 52 |
14 | Bristol Rovers | 39 | 14 | 9 | 16 | 53 | 61 | -8 | 51 |
15 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 41 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 45 | 45 | 0 | 50 |
16 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 41 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 35 | 52 | -17 | 46 |
17 | Port Vale | 41 | 12 | 10 | 19 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 46 |
18 | Burton Albion | 39 | 12 | 9 | 18 | 51 | 74 | -23 | 45 |
19 | MK Dons | 41 | 11 | 9 | 21 | 38 | 58 | -20 | 42 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 40 | 9 | 13 | 18 | 40 | 50 | -10 | 40 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 40 | 9 | 11 | 20 | 33 | 66 | -33 | 38 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 40 | 10 | 7 | 23 | 33 | 61 | -28 | 37 |
23 | Morecambe | 42 | 7 | 14 | 21 | 38 | 71 | -33 | 35 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 41 | 6 | 8 | 27 | 29 | 76 | -47 | 26 |
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