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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Accrington Stanley win with a probability of 44.31%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Accrington Stanley win was 0-1 with a probability of 12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (8.31%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 1-0 (9.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Gillingham would win this match.
Result | ||
Gillingham | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
28.77% ( 0.15) | 26.91% ( -0.06) | 44.31% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 49% ( 0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
44.21% ( 0.29) | 55.79% ( -0.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
23.08% ( 0.23) | 76.92% ( -0.23) |
Gillingham Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.37% ( 0.27) | 34.63% ( -0.27) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.65% ( 0.28) | 71.35% ( -0.29) |
Accrington Stanley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.96% ( 0.08) | 25.04% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.29% ( 0.11) | 59.71% ( -0.11) |
Score Analysis |
Gillingham | Draw | Accrington Stanley |
1-0 @ 9.19% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.39% ( 0.03) 3-0 @ 1.72% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.19% Total : 28.77% | 1-1 @ 12.73% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.67% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 4.68% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.84% Total : 26.91% | 0-1 @ 12% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 8.82% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 8.31% ( -0.05) 1-3 @ 4.07% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 3.84% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.16% ( 0.02) 1-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 1.33% ( -0) Other @ 2.37% Total : 44.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Stockport CountyStockport | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 56 | 27 | 29 | 54 |
2 | Wrexham | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 54 | 36 | 18 | 52 |
3 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 26 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 50 |
4 | BarrowBarrow | 27 | 13 | 10 | 4 | 40 | 26 | 14 | 49 |
5 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 27 | 13 | 8 | 6 | 50 | 40 | 10 | 47 |
6 | MK Dons | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 42 |
7 | Notts County | 26 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 55 | 47 | 8 | 42 |
8 | Gillingham | 26 | 13 | 2 | 11 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 41 |
9 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 40 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 26 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 41 | 30 | 11 | 39 |
11 | Crawley TownCrawley | 27 | 12 | 3 | 12 | 43 | 45 | -2 | 39 |
12 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 41 | 38 | 3 | 38 |
13 | Walsall | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 36 |
14 | Bradford CityBradford | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 34 | 36 | -2 | 35 |
15 | Swindon TownSwindon | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 50 | 54 | -4 | 34 |
16 | Morecambe | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 38 | 42 | -4 | 34 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 34 |
18 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 28 | 10 | 3 | 15 | 43 | 42 | 1 | 33 |
19 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 27 | 8 | 4 | 15 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 28 |
20 | Grimsby Town | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 27 |
21 | Salford City | 27 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 35 | 48 | -13 | 27 |
22 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 28 | 7 | 4 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 25 |
23 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 30 | 54 | -24 | 19 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 48 | -22 | 18 |
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