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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 37.76%. A win for Oxford United had a probability of 36.1% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (6.38%). The likeliest Oxford United win was 0-1 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Oxford United would win this match.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Oxford United |
37.76% ( -0.06) | 26.15% ( -0.02) | 36.1% ( 0.08) |
Both teams to score 53.72% ( 0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.18% ( 0.07) | 50.81% ( -0.07) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.3% ( 0.06) | 72.7% ( -0.06) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.77% ( -0.01) | 26.23% ( 0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.67% ( -0.01) | 61.33% ( 0.01) |
Oxford United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.82% ( 0.08) | 27.18% ( -0.08) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.42% ( 0.1) | 62.58% ( -0.1) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Oxford United |
1-0 @ 9.54% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.32% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 6.38% ( -0.02) 3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.42% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.24% ( -0) 4-0 @ 0.95% ( -0) Other @ 2.34% Total : 37.76% | 1-1 @ 12.42% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.13% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.42% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 8.1% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.05% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.52% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.63% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 2.35% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.15% ( 0.01) Other @ 3.03% Total : 36.1% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Portsmouth | 27 | 15 | 8 | 4 | 42 | 25 | 17 | 53 |
2 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 26 | 15 | 7 | 4 | 52 | 28 | 24 | 52 |
3 | Derby CountyDerby | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 50 | 26 | 24 | 52 |
4 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 24 | 16 | 3 | 5 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 51 |
5 | Barnsley | 26 | 14 | 7 | 5 | 50 | 30 | 20 | 49 |
6 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 30 | 15 | 49 |
7 | Stevenage | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 38 | 25 | 13 | 46 |
8 | Blackpool | 27 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 44 | 32 | 12 | 42 |
9 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 32 | 34 | -2 | 37 |
10 | Leyton Orient | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 31 | -3 | 35 |
11 | Bristol Rovers | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 34 |
12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 33 |
13 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 30 |
14 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 30 | 35 | -5 | 30 |
15 | Port Vale | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 28 | 38 | -10 | 30 |
16 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 23 | 33 | -10 | 30 |
17 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 27 | 9 | 3 | 15 | 17 | 37 | -20 | 30 |
18 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 36 | 31 | 5 | 28 |
19 | Burton Albion | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 28 |
20 | Exeter CityExeter | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 18 | 39 | -21 | 26 |
21 | Reading | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 23 |
22 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 19 | 34 | -15 | 23 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 28 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 23 | 43 | -20 | 20 |
24 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 26 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 23 | 47 | -24 | 18 |
> League One Full Table |