Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 31.97% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.38%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
Result | ||
Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
31.97% ( -0.14) | 24.26% ( 0.02) | 43.77% ( 0.12) |
Both teams to score 59.2% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
56.71% ( -0.16) | 43.28% ( 0.15) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
34.32% ( -0.15) | 65.68% ( 0.15) |
Newcastle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.94% ( -0.16) | 26.06% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.9% ( -0.22) | 61.1% ( 0.22) |
Manchester City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.05% ( -0.01) | 19.94% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
47.9% ( -0.02) | 52.09% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Newcastle United | Draw | Manchester City |
2-1 @ 7.58% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.99% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4.7% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.4% ( -0.03) 3-2 @ 2.74% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 0.92% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.4% Total : 31.97% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.11% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.2% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.22% Total : 24.26% | 1-2 @ 9.08% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.38% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 6.75% ( 0.04) 1-3 @ 4.88% ( 0) 0-3 @ 3.63% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 3.28% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.97% ( 0) 0-4 @ 1.46% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01) Other @ 3% Total : 43.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 45 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 43 |
3 | Aston Villa | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
4 | Arsenal | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 40 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 40 |
6 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 34 |
7 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 32 |
8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 31 |
9 | Chelsea | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 31 |
10 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 29 |
11 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 28 |
12 | Bournemouth | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 25 |
13 | Fulham | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 24 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 21 |
15 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 20 |
16 | Brentford | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 19 |
17 | Everton | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 17 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 16 |
19 | Burnley | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 42 | -21 | 12 |
20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 49 | -34 | 9 |
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