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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 39.59%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.57%) and 0-2 (6.69%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 1-0 (8.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
Result | ||
Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
34.47% ( -1.04) | 25.94% ( -0.07) | 39.59% ( 1.12) |
Both teams to score 54.21% ( 0.09) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.9% ( 0.18) | 50.1% ( -0.17) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.93% ( 0.16) | 72.07% ( -0.15) |
Heerenveen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.19% ( -0.54) | 27.81% ( 0.55) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.6% ( -0.7) | 63.4% ( 0.71) |
AZ Alkmaar Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.1% ( 0.68) | 24.9% ( -0.68) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.48% ( 0.94) | 59.52% ( -0.93) |
Score Analysis |
Heerenveen | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
1-0 @ 8.86% ( -0.2) 2-1 @ 7.88% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 5.67% ( -0.22) 3-1 @ 3.36% ( -0.12) 3-0 @ 2.42% ( -0.13) 3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.86% Total : 34.47% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.93% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 5.48% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0) Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.94% | 0-1 @ 9.63% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 8.57% ( 0.14) 0-2 @ 6.69% ( 0.21) 1-3 @ 3.97% ( 0.14) 0-3 @ 3.1% ( 0.16) 2-3 @ 2.54% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.38% ( 0.08) 0-4 @ 1.08% ( 0.07) Other @ 2.63% Total : 39.59% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Feyenoord | 26 | 18 | 7 | 1 | 59 | 25 | 34 | 61 |
2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 27 | 17 | 5 | 5 | 71 | 33 | 38 | 56 |
3 | Ajax | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 72 | 28 | 44 | 55 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 53 | 31 | 22 | 54 |
5 | FC Twente | 27 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 44 | 22 | 22 | 48 |
6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 41 | 27 | 14 | 46 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 42 | 41 | 1 | 38 |
8 | Heerenveen | 27 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 32 | 37 | -5 | 35 |
9 | NECNijmegen | 27 | 7 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 34 |
10 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 41 | 40 | 1 | 32 |
11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 29 |
12 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 32 | 46 | -14 | 29 |
13 | FC VolendamVolendam | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 56 | -25 | 26 |
14 | Vitesse | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 24 |
15 | EmmenEmmen | 27 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 25 | 46 | -21 | 24 |
16 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 25 | 61 | -36 | 24 |
17 | Groningen | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | 25 | 52 | -27 | 17 |
18 | Cambuur | 27 | 4 | 4 | 19 | 21 | 51 | -30 | 16 |
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