Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 51.24%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 26.12% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.11%) and 0-2 (7.55%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (6.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.