Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 53.2%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 23.99% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.11%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.