Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bala Town win with a probability of 52.42%. A win for Caernarfon Town had a probability of 24.8% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bala Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.76%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Caernarfon Town win was 2-1 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
