Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 40.75%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 31.53% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.34%) and 0-2 (7.65%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.