Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 69.52%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 15.07%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.82%) and 2-0 (5.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.47%), while for a Vitesse win it was 1-2 (3.72%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
