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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 66.91%. A draw had a probability of 18.5% and a win for FC Utrecht had a probability of 14.56%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.78%) and 0-1 (8.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.58%), while for a FC Utrecht win it was 2-1 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
14.56% | 18.53% | 66.91% |
Both teams to score 55.56% |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
62.9% | 37.11% |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
40.7% | 59.3% |
FC Utrecht Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
61.9% | 38.1% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.13% | 74.87% |
Ajax Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.75% | 10.25% |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.41% | 33.6% |
Score Analysis |
FC Utrecht | Draw | Ajax |
2-1 @ 4.14% 1-0 @ 3.77% 2-0 @ 1.82% 3-2 @ 1.52% 3-1 @ 1.33% Other @ 1.98% Total : 14.56% | 1-1 @ 8.58% 2-2 @ 4.72% 0-0 @ 3.91% 3-3 @ 1.15% Other @ 0.17% Total : 18.53% | 0-2 @ 10.13% 1-2 @ 9.78% 0-1 @ 8.9% 0-3 @ 7.7% 1-3 @ 7.43% 0-4 @ 4.38% 1-4 @ 4.23% 2-3 @ 3.58% 2-4 @ 2.04% 0-5 @ 2% 1-5 @ 1.93% 2-5 @ 0.93% Other @ 3.9% Total : 66.91% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Feyenoord | 33 | 25 | 7 | 1 | 81 | 29 | 52 | 82 |
2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 33 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 87 | 39 | 48 | 72 |
3 | Ajax | 33 | 20 | 9 | 4 | 85 | 35 | 50 | 69 |
4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 33 | 20 | 7 | 6 | 67 | 33 | 34 | 67 |
5 | FC Twente | 33 | 17 | 10 | 6 | 63 | 26 | 37 | 61 |
6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 33 | 16 | 8 | 9 | 55 | 37 | 18 | 56 |
7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | 52 | 48 | 4 | 51 |
8 | Heerenveen | 33 | 11 | 10 | 12 | 42 | 50 | -8 | 43 |
9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 41 |
10 | Go Ahead Eagles | 33 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 54 | -8 | 40 |
11 | NECNijmegen | 33 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 41 | 44 | -3 | 38 |
12 | Vitesse | 33 | 9 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 37 |
13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 33 | 10 | 5 | 18 | 38 | 61 | -23 | 35 |
14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 33 | 9 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 69 | -30 | 33 |
15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 33 | 9 | 5 | 19 | 30 | 68 | -38 | 32 |
16 | EmmenEmmen | 33 | 6 | 10 | 17 | 31 | 62 | -31 | 28 |
R | Groningen | 33 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 31 | 70 | -39 | 18 |
R | Cambuur | 33 | 4 | 4 | 25 | 22 | 69 | -47 | 16 |
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