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Europa League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Aug 31, 2023 at 6pm UK
Epet Arena
Dinamo Zagreb
Sparta Prague
4 - 1
Dinamo Zagreb
Haraslin (2'), Sorensen (24'), Panak (67'), Olatunji (87')
Olatunji (50'), Wiesner (52')
FT(HT: 2-0)
Baturina (71')
Moharrami (44')
The Match
Preview
Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Sparta Prague and Dinamo Zagreb, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.
More game data and we say below the videos

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 Rijeka
Sunday, August 27 at 8.05pm in Croatian 1. HNL

We said: Sparta Prague 1-2 Dinamo Zagreb (Dinamo Zagreb to win 5-2 on aggregate)

The onus is on Sparta Prague to take the game to Dinamo Zagreb on home soil and show a greater threat in the final third if they are to overturn the two-goal deficit. However, the visitors appear to have turned a corner since the appointment of Jakirovic and we expect the Croatian side to come away with another victory to book their place in the Europa League group stage. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sparta Prague win with a probability of 49.81%. A win for Dinamo Zagreb had a probability of 26.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sparta Prague win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.59%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Dinamo Zagreb win was 0-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sparta Prague would win this match.

Result
Sparta PragueDrawDinamo Zagreb
49.81% (-0.041999999999994 -0.04) 24.06% (0.0020000000000024 0) 26.13% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Both teams to score 55.91% (0.040999999999997 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.16% (0.033999999999999 0.03)45.84% (-0.027999999999999 -0.03)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.84% (0.031000000000002 0.03)68.16% (-0.027000000000001 -0.03)
Sparta Prague Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
81.54%18.46% (0.0070000000000014 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
50.35% (-0.0050000000000026 -0.01)49.66% (0.012 0.01)
Dinamo Zagreb Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.57% (0.054000000000002 0.05)31.44% (-0.048000000000002 -0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.19% (0.062000000000005 0.06)67.81% (-0.054999999999993 -0.05)
Score Analysis
    Sparta Prague 49.81%
    Dinamo Zagreb 26.13%
    Draw 24.06%
Sparta PragueDrawDinamo Zagreb
1-0 @ 9.81% (-0.014000000000001 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.59% (-0.0019999999999989 -0)
2-0 @ 8.28% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-1 @ 5.4% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
3-0 @ 4.66% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.12% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-1 @ 2.28% (-0.0010000000000003 -0)
4-0 @ 1.97% (-0.004 -0)
4-2 @ 1.32% (0.00099999999999989 0)
Other @ 3.39%
Total : 49.81%
1-1 @ 11.34%
0-0 @ 5.8% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
2-2 @ 5.55% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.21% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 0.16%
Total : 24.06%
0-1 @ 6.72% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 6.57% (0.008 0.01)
0-2 @ 3.89% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.53% (0.0070000000000001 0.01)
2-3 @ 2.14% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-3 @ 1.5% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.79%
Total : 26.13%

How you voted: Sparta Prague vs Dinamo Zagreb

Sparta Prague
27.0%
Draw
24.3%
Dinamo Zagreb
48.6%
37
Head to Head
Aug 24, 2023 7pm
Playoffs 1st Leg
Dinamo Zagreb
3-1
Sparta Prague
Spikic (44'), Peric (58'), Ivanusec (61')
Baturina (21')
Krejci (39' pen.)
Laci (70')
rhs 2.0
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