Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luzern win with a probability of 45.65%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 30.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Luzern win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.77%) and 2-0 (6.68%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (7.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.69%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Luzern would win this match.