Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 55.11%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Luton Town had a probability of 21.66%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.01%), while for a Luton Town win it was 0-1 (6.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Luton Town |
55.11% ( 1.74) | 23.23% ( 0.23) | 21.66% ( -1.97) |
Both teams to score 53.46% ( -3.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.37% ( -3.19) | 46.63% ( 3.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.11% ( -3.06) | 68.9% ( 3.06) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.22% ( -0.53) | 16.78% ( 0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.27% ( -0.95) | 46.74% ( 0.95) |
Luton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
64.25% ( -3.56) | 35.76% ( 3.56) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
27.47% ( -3.85) | 72.53% ( 3.85) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Luton Town |
1-0 @ 10.71% ( 1.2) 2-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.56% ( 0.92) 3-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.08) 3-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.46) 3-2 @ 3.01% ( -0.35) 4-1 @ 2.61% ( -0.08) 4-0 @ 2.54% ( 0.16) 4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.18) 5-1 @ 0.93% ( -0.05) 5-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.15% Total : 55.11% | 1-1 @ 11.01% ( 0.24) 0-0 @ 6% ( 0.77) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.49) 3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.22% | 0-1 @ 6.17% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 5.66% ( -0.44) 0-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.19) 1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.37) 2-3 @ 1.73% ( -0.36) 0-3 @ 1.09% ( -0.18) Other @ 1.89% Total : 21.66% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 20 | 13 | 6 | 1 | 43 | 18 | 25 | 45 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 20 | 13 | 4 | 3 | 48 | 23 | 25 | 43 |
3 | Aston Villa | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 43 |
4 | Arsenal | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 37 | 20 | 17 | 40 |
5 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 44 | 31 | 13 | 40 |
6 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 33 | 30 | 3 | 34 |
7 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 32 |
8 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 38 | 33 | 5 | 31 |
9 | Chelsea | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 35 | 31 | 4 | 31 |
10 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 21 | 9 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 32 | 9 | 29 |
11 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 30 | 31 | -1 | 28 |
12 | Bournemouth | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 25 |
13 | Fulham | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | 28 | 36 | -8 | 24 |
14 | Crystal Palace | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 22 | 29 | -7 | 21 |
15 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 20 |
16 | Brentford | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 26 | 31 | -5 | 19 |
17 | Everton | 21 | 8 | 3 | 10 | 24 | 28 | -4 | 17 |
18 | Luton TownLuton | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 24 | 38 | -14 | 16 |
19 | Burnley | 21 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 21 | 42 | -21 | 12 |
20 | Sheffield UnitedSheff Utd | 20 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 49 | -34 | 9 |
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