Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 58.35%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Carlisle United had a probability of 19.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.33%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.68%), while for a Carlisle United win it was 0-1 (5.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.