Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 40.39%. A win for Lokomotiv Moscow had a probability of 33.22% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.59%) and 2-0 (7.06%). The likeliest Lokomotiv Moscow win was 0-1 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Spartak Moscow would win this match.
