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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 38.42%. A win for Colchester United had a probability of 33.44% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Colchester United win was 0-1 (10.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Crewe Alexandra in this match.
Result | ||
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Colchester United |
38.42% ( 0.36) | 28.14% ( -0.18) | 33.44% ( -0.18) |
Both teams to score 47.17% ( 0.49) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
41.08% ( 0.63) | 58.93% ( -0.63) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
20.59% ( 0.48) | 79.41% ( -0.48) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.29% ( 0.53) | 29.72% ( -0.53) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.22% ( 0.63) | 65.78% ( -0.63) |
Colchester United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.12% ( 0.2) | 32.89% ( -0.2) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.54% ( 0.22) | 69.46% ( -0.22) |
Score Analysis |
Crewe Alexandra | Draw | Colchester United |
1-0 @ 11.85% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 8% ( 0.09) 2-0 @ 7.2% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 3.24% ( 0.08) 3-0 @ 2.91% ( 0.06) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.44% Total : 38.41% | 1-1 @ 13.18% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 9.77% ( -0.23) 2-2 @ 4.45% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.73% Total : 28.13% | 0-1 @ 10.86% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 7.33% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 6.04% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 2.72% ( 0.02) 0-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.65% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.59% Total : 33.44% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 40 | 23 | 12 | 5 | 54 | 27 | 27 | 81 |
2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 41 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 73 |
3 | Stockport CountyStockport | 41 | 20 | 10 | 11 | 57 | 33 | 24 | 70 |
4 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 41 | 19 | 13 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 70 |
5 | Stevenage | 40 | 19 | 13 | 8 | 54 | 37 | 17 | 70 |
6 | Bradford CityBradford | 40 | 18 | 14 | 8 | 51 | 35 | 16 | 68 |
7 | Salford City | 41 | 19 | 9 | 13 | 64 | 48 | 16 | 66 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 40 | 18 | 11 | 11 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 65 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 41 | 18 | 7 | 16 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 61 |
10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 41 | 15 | 12 | 14 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 57 |
11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 41 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 39 | 42 | -3 | 53 |
12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 51 |
13 | Walsall | 41 | 11 | 18 | 12 | 42 | 40 | 2 | 51 |
14 | Grimsby Town | 40 | 13 | 12 | 15 | 44 | 51 | -7 | 51 |
15 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 41 | 15 | 6 | 20 | 41 | 57 | -16 | 51 |
16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 40 | 11 | 15 | 14 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 48 |
17 | AFC Wimbledon | 42 | 11 | 14 | 17 | 45 | 51 | -6 | 47 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 40 | 11 | 14 | 15 | 41 | 47 | -6 | 47 |
19 | Gillingham | 41 | 12 | 11 | 18 | 29 | 44 | -15 | 47 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 41 | 10 | 12 | 19 | 39 | 47 | -8 | 42 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 40 | 9 | 14 | 17 | 47 | 59 | -12 | 41 |
22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 41 | 8 | 15 | 18 | 48 | 70 | -22 | 39 |
23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 41 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 43 | 68 | -25 | 38 |
24 | Rochdale | 41 | 8 | 9 | 24 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 33 |
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