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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Plymouth Argyle win with a probability of 54.17%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Exeter City had a probability of 21.35%.
The most likely scoreline for a Plymouth Argyle win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.23%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Exeter City win it was 0-1 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Plymouth Argyle would win this match.
Result | ||
Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Exeter City |
54.17% ( 0.2) | 24.47% ( -0.04) | 21.35% ( -0.16) |
Both teams to score 49.21% ( -0.1) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
47.93% ( -0.02) | 52.07% ( 0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.2% ( -0.02) | 73.79% ( 0.02) |
Plymouth Argyle Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.85% ( 0.07) | 19.15% ( -0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.2% ( 0.12) | 50.8% ( -0.12) |
Exeter City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.86% ( -0.17) | 39.13% ( 0.18) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
24.15% ( -0.16) | 75.85% ( 0.16) |
Score Analysis |
Plymouth Argyle | Draw | Exeter City |
1-0 @ 12.38% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 5.29% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.48% ( -0) 4-0 @ 2.33% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.19% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 1.03% Other @ 2.99% Total : 54.16% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.49% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.02) Other @ 0.86% Total : 24.47% | 0-1 @ 7.03% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.04) 0-2 @ 3.3% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.41% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.01) Other @ 1.43% Total : 21.35% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 41 | 26 | 8 | 7 | 71 | 44 | 27 | 86 |
2 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 41 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 85 | 32 | 53 | 85 |
3 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 42 | 24 | 12 | 6 | 73 | 35 | 38 | 84 |
4 | Barnsley | 41 | 25 | 6 | 10 | 74 | 38 | 36 | 81 |
5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 41 | 20 | 11 | 10 | 55 | 32 | 23 | 71 |
6 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 42 | 22 | 4 | 16 | 71 | 50 | 21 | 70 |
7 | Derby CountyDerby | 42 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 69 |
8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 42 | 19 | 8 | 15 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 65 |
9 | Portsmouth | 42 | 16 | 16 | 10 | 56 | 46 | 10 | 64 |
10 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 41 | 16 | 8 | 17 | 49 | 53 | -4 | 56 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 42 | 14 | 13 | 15 | 62 | 59 | 3 | 55 |
12 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 41 | 12 | 19 | 10 | 42 | 43 | -1 | 55 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 59 | 56 | 3 | 53 |
14 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 42 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 50 | 47 | 3 | 53 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 40 | 14 | 10 | 16 | 54 | 62 | -8 | 52 |
16 | Burton Albion | 40 | 13 | 9 | 18 | 54 | 76 | -22 | 48 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 42 | 12 | 11 | 19 | 37 | 54 | -17 | 47 |
18 | Port Vale | 42 | 12 | 10 | 20 | 42 | 63 | -21 | 46 |
19 | MK Dons | 42 | 11 | 10 | 21 | 40 | 60 | -20 | 43 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 41 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 40 |
21 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 41 | 11 | 7 | 23 | 35 | 61 | -26 | 40 |
22 | Morecambe | 43 | 8 | 14 | 21 | 39 | 71 | -32 | 38 |
23 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 41 | 9 | 11 | 21 | 35 | 71 | -36 | 38 |
R | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 42 | 6 | 8 | 28 | 30 | 81 | -51 | 26 |
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