We said: Arouca 3-1 Boavista
Given the contrasting form of the two sides, and the major hits to Boavista's defence, we heavily fancy the newly-promoted side to do the business on Saturday.
As Panteras will struggle to field two genuine centre-backs, and, considering they have already struggled at the back in recent weeks, we do not back them to get a result away from home.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 55.08%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Boavista had a probability of 20.49%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.59%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.57%), while for a Boavista win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
