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Lyon
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 14
Feb 1, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stade de Gerland
Marseille
Lyon
2 - 1
Marseille
Shaqiri (76'), Dembele (89')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Guendouzi (10')

Preview: Lyon vs. Marseille - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Lyon and Marseille, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Derby bragging rights are on the line during Sunday's Choc des Olympiques in Ligue 1 as Lyon welcome Marseille to the Groupama Stadium.

Peter Bosz's side were humbled in a 4-1 defeat to Rennes before the international break, while Les Olympiens were held to a goalless stalemate by Metz.


Match preview

Olympique Lyonnais coach Peter Bosz pictured on September 30, 2021© Reuters

Three days after seeing off Sparta Prague with total ease in the Europa League, Lyon were taught a footballing lesson away to Rennes, and Bosz may have been grateful that his side only lost by three goals at Roazhon Park.

Gaetan Laborde drew first blood on the stroke of half time before Hamari Traore doubled his side's tally six minutes after the restart, and substitute Adrien Truffert - a full-back by trade - bagged a brace not long after being introduced as a substitute to propel Rennes to a remarkable win.

Lucas Paqueta's penalty did not evoke much joy within the ranks at Lyon, whose European credentials are still being called into question as they lie seventh in the table after 13 games, taking 19 points from a possible 39 so far.

However, the tightly-congested nature of the top half means that Les Gones are only six points behind second-placed Lens, and Bosz can focus all of his attention on domestic matters for now, with Lyon already booking their spot in the last 32 of the Europa League.

Lyon enter Sunday's game having picked up just two wins from their last six in Ligue 1 - with European fatigue surely playing a part in that - but they remain unbeaten on home soil and will certainly have no intentions of breaking that hot streak here.

Marseille manager Jorge Sampaoli pictured in March 2021© Reuters

The continental fatigue has also been hitting Marseille hard in recent weeks, as three days after playing out an enthralling 2-2 draw with Lazio in the Europa League, Jorge Sampaoli's men shared the spoils in a goalless stalemate with Metz.

Thomas Delaine and Dimitri Payet both went close for their respective sides at the Stade Saint-Symphorien, but there were ultimately no goals to be had as resident draw specialists Marseille played out a fifth stalemate from six games in all competitions.

The international break may therefore have come at the perfect time for Marseille - who have incredibly shared the spoils in all of their Europa League games so far - and Sampaoli's men occupy fourth spot in the rankings ahead of Sunday's derby.

While Marseille have evidently lost their early-season goalscoring touch amid their hectic schedule - scoring just twice in their last 360 minutes of domestic football - Sampaoli's men have shipped just three goals in their last five league games away from home and will seek to pile the misery on Lyon with a refreshed side.

Both of last season's Choc des Olympiques ended 1-1, but Marseille have won just one of their last 13 meetings with Lyon in the French top flight and are without a league win on Les Gones' turf since prevailing 2-1 in the 2007-08 season.

Lyon Ligue 1 form:
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Lyon form (all competitions):
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Marseille Ligue 1 form:
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D

Marseille form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • D
  • D



Team News

Olympique Lyonnais players pictured on September 30, 2021© Reuters

Lyon attacker Tino Kadewere will serve the third and final game of his ban following his red card against Nice in gameweek 11, while Moussa Dembele is still nursing a calf problem.

Leo Dubois's hamstring injury is also set to keep him out of the derby, with the right-back sustaining the issue during France's World Cup qualifying win over Finland, so 18-year-old Malo Gusto could deputise.

The likes of Rayan Cherki and Xherdan Shaqiri will both hope to come into contention for starts after their side's humbling at Rennes, but Jerome Boateng and Jason Denayer are unlikely to lose their places in defence.

Meanwhile, Marseille defender Leonardo Balerdi is suspended for the derby owing to an accumulation of yellow cards, but Boubacar Kamara is back from a ban of his own.

Veteran goalkeeper Steve Mandanda was given the nod over Pau Lopez for the draw with Metz and will hope to keep his place after that clean sheet, but Cengiz Under is set to miss out with a back problem.

Bamba Dieng and Konrad de la Fuente are pushing for more minutes amid their side's attacking troubles, but it is difficult to see the former displacing Arkadiusz Milik up top.

Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Gusto, Denayer, Boateng, Emerson; Guimaraes, Mendes, Caqueret; Shaqiri, Paqeuta, Aouar

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Mandanda; Lirola, Saliba, Caleta-Car, Peres; Rongier, Kamara, Guendouzi, De la Fuente; Payet; Milik


SM words green background

We say: Lyon 0-0 Marseille

Marseille will hope to see their affinity for draws become a thing of the past following the international break, but Sampaoli is under pressure to find the right formula for his side's attacking troubles.

A confidence-depleted Lyon can at least fall back on their solid home record and recent spate of strong results against Marseille, so we expect defences to take centre stage as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless stalemate.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 40.73%. A win for Marseille had a probability of 33.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Marseille win was 0-1 (8.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.


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Game History

How you voted: Lyon vs Marseille

Lyon
42.1%
Draw
29.2%
Marseille
28.7%
202
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Nice10640114722
2MonacoMonaco962123121120
3Paris Saint-GermainPSG95312071318
4Reims105231612417
5Lille94321210215
6Brest943298115
7NantesNantes104241619-314
8Marseille93331212012
9Lens103341213-112
10Rennes92521512311
11Toulouse92521110111
12Le HavreLe Havre92431012-210
13Lorient102441520-510
14StrasbourgStrasbourg9315814-610
15Montpellier HSCMontpellier8233121118
16Metz9225816-88
17Clermont9126714-75
18Lyon9036718-113

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