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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stevenage win with a probability of 68.93%. A draw had a probability of 19.7% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 11.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stevenage win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.7%) and 2-1 (9.29%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.22%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 0-1 (4.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stevenage would win this match.
Result | ||
Stevenage | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
68.93% ( 4.63) | 19.67% ( -1.84) | 11.4% ( -2.79) |
Both teams to score 42.44% ( -2.32) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.34% ( 1.28) | 49.66% ( -1.28) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.32% ( 1.13) | 71.68% ( -1.13) |
Stevenage Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.66% ( 1.83) | 13.33% ( -1.84) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
59.8% ( 3.58) | 40.2% ( -3.58) |
Crewe Alexandra Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
48.97% ( -3.8) | 51.02% ( 3.8) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
14.64% ( -2.7) | 85.35% ( 2.7) |
Score Analysis |
Stevenage | Draw | Crewe Alexandra |
2-0 @ 13.81% ( 1.07) 1-0 @ 13.7% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.29% ( -0.27) 3-0 @ 9.28% ( 1.27) 3-1 @ 6.24% ( 0.23) 4-0 @ 4.67% ( 0.9) 4-1 @ 3.14% ( 0.31) 3-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.15) 5-0 @ 1.88% ( 0.46) 5-1 @ 1.27% ( 0.2) 4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0) Other @ 2.48% Total : 68.93% | 1-1 @ 9.22% ( -0.91) 0-0 @ 6.8% ( -0.36) 2-2 @ 3.13% ( -0.46) Other @ 0.51% Total : 19.67% | 0-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.8) 1-2 @ 3.1% ( -0.7) 0-2 @ 1.54% ( -0.48) Other @ 2.18% Total : 11.4% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 41 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 56 | 27 | 29 | 84 |
2 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 42 | 20 | 14 | 8 | 55 | 38 | 17 | 74 |
3 | Stevenage | 41 | 20 | 13 | 8 | 56 | 38 | 18 | 73 |
4 | Stockport CountyStockport | 42 | 20 | 11 | 11 | 58 | 34 | 24 | 71 |
5 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 42 | 19 | 14 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 71 |
6 | Bradford CityBradford | 41 | 19 | 14 | 8 | 54 | 35 | 19 | 71 |
7 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 41 | 18 | 12 | 11 | 65 | 50 | 15 | 66 |
8 | Salford City | 42 | 19 | 9 | 14 | 64 | 49 | 15 | 66 |
9 | BarrowBarrow | 42 | 18 | 8 | 16 | 46 | 47 | -1 | 62 |
10 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 42 | 15 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 57 |
11 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 42 | 14 | 11 | 17 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 53 |
12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 41 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 52 | 50 | 2 | 52 |
13 | Grimsby Town | 41 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 45 | 52 | -7 | 52 |
14 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 42 | 15 | 7 | 20 | 43 | 59 | -16 | 52 |
15 | Walsall | 42 | 11 | 18 | 13 | 42 | 42 | 0 | 51 |
16 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 41 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 41 | 51 | -10 | 51 |
17 | Newport CountyNewport | 41 | 12 | 14 | 15 | 43 | 47 | -4 | 50 |
18 | Gillingham | 42 | 12 | 12 | 18 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 48 |
19 | AFC Wimbledon | 43 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 46 | 53 | -7 | 47 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 42 | 11 | 12 | 19 | 40 | 47 | -7 | 45 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 41 | 9 | 15 | 17 | 49 | 61 | -12 | 42 |
22 | Crawley TownCrawley | 42 | 10 | 11 | 21 | 45 | 69 | -24 | 41 |
23 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 42 | 8 | 15 | 19 | 48 | 72 | -24 | 39 |
24 | Rochdale | 42 | 8 | 9 | 25 | 39 | 65 | -26 | 33 |
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