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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 37.7%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.64%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 0-1 (9.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newport County would win this match.
Result | ||
Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
37.7% ( 1.35) | 26.89% ( 0) | 35.41% ( -1.35) |
Both teams to score 51.24% ( -0.06) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.05% ( -0.05) | 53.94% ( 0.05) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
24.6% ( -0.04) | 75.39% ( 0.04) |
Newport County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.27% ( 0.77) | 27.73% ( -0.77) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.7% ( 0.98) | 63.3% ( -0.98) |
Swindon Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.9% ( -0.84) | 29.1% ( 0.84) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.98% ( -1.05) | 65.02% ( 1.05) |
Score Analysis |
Newport County | Draw | Swindon Town |
1-0 @ 10.35% ( 0.25) 2-1 @ 8.19% ( 0.18) 2-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.29) 3-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.15) 3-0 @ 2.84% ( 0.18) 3-2 @ 2.16% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 0.91% ( 0.08) Other @ 1.98% Total : 37.7% | 1-1 @ 12.77% 0-0 @ 8.07% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.98% Total : 26.88% | 0-1 @ 9.96% ( -0.21) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( -0.19) 0-2 @ 6.15% ( -0.28) 1-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.16) 0-3 @ 2.53% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.05) 1-4 @ 1% ( -0.07) Other @ 2.56% Total : 35.41% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Leyton Orient | 35 | 21 | 9 | 5 | 46 | 22 | 24 | 72 |
2 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 35 | 18 | 10 | 7 | 58 | 35 | 23 | 64 |
3 | Stevenage | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 63 |
4 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 35 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 48 | 33 | 15 | 60 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 36 | 17 | 8 | 11 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 59 |
6 | Bradford CityBradford | 35 | 16 | 11 | 8 | 43 | 30 | 13 | 59 |
7 | Salford City | 36 | 16 | 8 | 12 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 56 |
8 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 33 | 16 | 7 | 10 | 54 | 43 | 11 | 55 |
9 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 36 | 15 | 10 | 11 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 55 |
10 | BarrowBarrow | 36 | 15 | 7 | 14 | 38 | 41 | -3 | 52 |
11 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 35 | 15 | 5 | 15 | 38 | 46 | -8 | 50 |
12 | Swindon TownSwindon | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 45 | 38 | 7 | 49 |
13 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 36 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 35 | 35 | 0 | 48 |
14 | Walsall | 34 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 36 | 32 | 4 | 44 |
15 | AFC Wimbledon | 35 | 10 | 12 | 13 | 37 | 41 | -4 | 42 |
16 | Grimsby Town | 33 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 42 |
17 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 34 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 33 | 43 | -10 | 42 |
18 | Newport CountyNewport | 35 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 34 | 41 | -7 | 39 |
19 | Gillingham | 35 | 9 | 11 | 15 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 38 |
20 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 36 | 9 | 8 | 19 | 31 | 43 | -12 | 35 |
21 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 36 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 41 | 54 | -13 | 35 |
22 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 36 | 6 | 12 | 18 | 38 | 64 | -26 | 30 |
23 | Crawley TownCrawley | 34 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 37 | 58 | -21 | 29 |
24 | Rochdale | 36 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 29 | 53 | -24 | 25 |
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