We said: Everton 2-1 Brentford
Even without Alli or Van de Beek pulling the strings from midfield, the new manager bounce should be in full effect for Everton as Lampard seeks to endear himself to the Goodison Park faithful right away.
Brentford's worrying losing streak before the international break, a lengthy injury list and friction over Toney's comments could all contribute to their downfall here, and we expect the Toffees to avenge their league defeat to Frank's side by booking their spot in round five.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 37.98%. A win for Brentford had a probability of 35.63% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.31%) and 2-0 (6.52%). The likeliest Brentford win was 0-1 (9.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Everton would win this match.
