Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lorient win with a probability of 57.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.9% and a win for Troyes had a probability of 19.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lorient win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.19%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.86%), while for a Troyes win it was 0-1 (5.98%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lorient would win this match.
Result | ||
Lorient | Draw | Troyes |
57.31% ( 0.09) | 22.85% ( -0.11) | 19.84% ( 0.02) |
Both teams to score 51.92% ( 0.38) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.68% ( 0.49) | 47.32% ( -0.5) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.46% ( 0.46) | 69.54% ( -0.46) |
Lorient Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.74% ( 0.2) | 16.26% ( -0.21) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.2% ( 0.37) | 45.79% ( -0.38) |
Troyes Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
62.01% ( 0.31) | 37.99% ( -0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
25.24% ( 0.29) | 74.76% ( -0.3) |
Score Analysis |
Lorient | Draw | Troyes |
1-0 @ 11.22% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 10.19% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.17% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.97% ( 0.05) 3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0.05) 4-0 @ 2.8% ( 0.02) 4-1 @ 2.71% ( 0.04) 4-2 @ 1.31% ( 0.03) 5-0 @ 1.02% ( 0.01) 5-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.17% Total : 57.31% | 1-1 @ 10.86% ( -0.05) 0-0 @ 6.18% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 4.77% ( 0.05) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.11% Total : 22.85% | 0-1 @ 5.98% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 5.26% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.89% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.03) 0-3 @ 0.93% ( 0) Other @ 1.54% Total : 19.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 37 | 27 | 4 | 6 | 87 | 37 | 50 | 85 |
2 | Lens | 37 | 24 | 9 | 4 | 65 | 28 | 37 | 81 |
3 | Marseille | 37 | 22 | 7 | 8 | 67 | 39 | 28 | 73 |
4 | Lille | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 64 | 43 | 21 | 66 |
5 | Rennes | 37 | 20 | 5 | 12 | 67 | 38 | 29 | 65 |
6 | MonacoMonaco | 37 | 19 | 8 | 10 | 69 | 56 | 13 | 65 |
7 | Lyon | 37 | 18 | 8 | 11 | 64 | 44 | 20 | 62 |
8 | Clermont | 37 | 16 | 8 | 13 | 42 | 47 | -5 | 56 |
9 | Nice | 37 | 14 | 13 | 10 | 45 | 36 | 9 | 55 |
10 | Lorient | 37 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 52 |
11 | Reims | 37 | 12 | 15 | 10 | 44 | 42 | 2 | 51 |
12 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 37 | 14 | 5 | 18 | 62 | 61 | 1 | 47 |
13 | Toulouse | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 49 | 56 | -7 | 45 |
14 | Brest | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 43 | 52 | -9 | 44 |
15 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 50 | 57 | -7 | 40 |
16 | Auxerre | 37 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 34 | 60 | -26 | 35 |
17 | NantesNantes | 37 | 6 | 15 | 16 | 36 | 55 | -19 | 33 |
R | Troyes | 37 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 44 | 80 | -36 | 23 |
R | Ajaccio | 37 | 6 | 5 | 26 | 22 | 74 | -52 | 23 |
R | Angers | 37 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 33 | 80 | -47 | 18 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |