Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Sarmiento had a probability of 28.41% and a draw had a probability of 28.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.21%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.55%) and 1-2 (8.44%). The likeliest Sarmiento win was 1-0 (10.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
