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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barnsley win with a probability of 36.76%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 35.65% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barnsley win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (10.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barnsley would win this match.
Result | ||
Barnsley | Draw | Derby County |
36.76% ( -0.03) | 27.59% ( 0) | 35.65% ( 0.03) |
Both teams to score 49.05% ( -0) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
43.3% ( -0.01) | 56.7% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
22.34% ( -0) | 77.66% ( 0) |
Barnsley Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.38% ( -0.02) | 29.62% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.34% ( -0.02) | 65.66% ( 0.03) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
69.69% ( 0.01) | 30.31% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
33.51% ( 0.02) | 66.49% ( -0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Barnsley | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 10.92% 2-1 @ 7.93% ( -0) 2-0 @ 6.65% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 3.22% ( -0) 3-0 @ 2.7% ( -0) 3-2 @ 1.92% ( -0) 4-1 @ 0.98% ( -0) Other @ 2.45% Total : 36.75% | 1-1 @ 13.04% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.98% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.73% ( -0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 27.59% | 0-1 @ 10.71% 1-2 @ 7.78% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.4% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.55% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.88% ( 0) 1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0) Other @ 2.3% Total : 35.64% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Plymouth ArgylePlymouth | 38 | 24 | 8 | 6 | 67 | 41 | 26 | 80 |
2 | Sheffield WednesdaySheff Weds | 37 | 23 | 9 | 5 | 64 | 28 | 36 | 78 |
3 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 37 | 21 | 12 | 4 | 72 | 31 | 41 | 75 |
4 | Barnsley | 36 | 22 | 6 | 8 | 60 | 31 | 29 | 72 |
5 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 52 | 31 | 21 | 64 |
6 | Derby CountyDerby | 38 | 18 | 10 | 10 | 59 | 39 | 20 | 64 |
7 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 38 | 20 | 3 | 15 | 65 | 47 | 18 | 63 |
8 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 38 | 18 | 7 | 13 | 51 | 36 | 15 | 61 |
9 | Portsmouth | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 53 | 44 | 9 | 58 |
10 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 37 | 16 | 7 | 14 | 47 | 41 | 6 | 55 |
11 | Exeter CityExeter | 37 | 13 | 10 | 14 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 49 |
12 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 53 | 50 | 3 | 49 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 38 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 41 | 39 | 2 | 49 |
14 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 37 | 9 | 18 | 10 | 34 | 40 | -6 | 45 |
15 | Bristol Rovers | 37 | 12 | 9 | 16 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 45 |
16 | Port Vale | 38 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 40 | 55 | -15 | 45 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 37 | 12 | 7 | 18 | 32 | 47 | -15 | 43 |
18 | Burton Albion | 36 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 47 | 70 | -23 | 41 |
19 | MK Dons | 38 | 11 | 6 | 21 | 34 | 54 | -20 | 39 |
20 | Oxford UnitedOxford Utd | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 37 |
21 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 38 | 8 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 63 | -33 | 35 |
22 | Morecambe | 39 | 7 | 13 | 19 | 37 | 63 | -26 | 34 |
23 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 37 | 8 | 6 | 23 | 28 | 59 | -31 | 30 |
24 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 38 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 71 | -42 | 26 |
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