Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 56.49%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 21.87% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.59%) and 2-0 (8.51%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 1-2 (5.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.94%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
Result | ||
Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
56.49% ( -0.18) | 21.65% ( -0.02) | 21.87% ( 0.21) |
Both teams to score 59.12% ( 0.38) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.72% ( 0.36) | 39.28% ( -0.36) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
38.39% ( 0.38) | 61.61% ( -0.37) |
Melbourne City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
86.21% ( 0.06) | 13.78% ( -0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58.9% ( 0.12) | 41.1% ( -0.12) |
Sydney FC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.57% ( 0.39) | 31.43% ( -0.39) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.19% ( 0.45) | 67.8% ( -0.44) |
Score Analysis |
Melbourne City | Draw | Sydney FC |
2-1 @ 9.85% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 8.59% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 8.51% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 6.5% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.62% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.03) 5-1 @ 1.28% ( 0.01) 5-0 @ 1.1% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.41% Total : 56.49% | 1-1 @ 9.94% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.7% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 4.33% ( -0.07) 3-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.03) Other @ 0.23% Total : 21.65% | 1-2 @ 5.75% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 2.9% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 2.22% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.66% Total : 21.87% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Melbourne CityMelbourne City | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 61 | 32 | 29 | 55 |
2 | Central Coast MarinersCentral Coast | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 35 | 20 | 44 |
3 | Adelaide UnitedAdelaide United | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 42 |
4 | Western Sydney WanderersWestern Sydney | 26 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 43 | 27 | 16 | 41 |
5 | Sydney FCSydney FC | 26 | 11 | 5 | 10 | 40 | 39 | 1 | 38 |
6 | Wellington PhoenixWellington | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 45 | -6 | 35 |
7 | Western UnitedWestern Utd | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 34 | 47 | -13 | 32 |
8 | Brisbane RoarBrisbane Roar | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 | 33 | -7 | 30 |
9 | Perth GloryPerth Glory | 26 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 46 | -10 | 29 |
10 | Newcastle JetsNewcastle Jets | 26 | 8 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 29 |
11 | Melbourne VictoryVictory | 26 | 8 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 34 | -5 | 28 |
12 | Macarthur | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | 31 | 48 | -17 | 26 |
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